生物壳体就位分析中存在的问题及研究进展

生物壳体碳酸盐的稳定氧、碳同位素已经被大量地应用在古气候、古环境研究中。几十年的研究取得了很多重大成果,但是在生物壳体的就位分析研究中仍存在以下几个主要问题:生物壳体氧、碳同位素的解释问题;生物壳体时间序列的确定问题;就位分析研究壳体剖面的选择问题等。解决这些问题对于利用生物壳体提取高分辨率的古气候环境信息至关重要。文章针对这些问题进行了论述,并介绍了国内外为解决这些问题出现的新的研究方法及其最新研究进展。     

A Mediation Case for Resolving the Energy and Environment Dispute at Aliağa-İzmir, Turkey

A mediation exercise to resolve the ongoing dispute against these power plant projects at Aliağa was recommended and participated in by the author in 1997. In this article the basis of the continuing environmental concern about the feared impacts of the new power plants, procedure, and results of this mediation are mentioned. The basis of the “energy versus environment” dispute in Aliağa are introduced. Mediation exercise and its end results have been criticized.     

环境污染纠纷行政处理制度存在的问题及完善

目前，环境污染纠纷行政处理制度存在受理范围概念不清，与污染事故混淆,责任认定性质不明确等问题，应当扩大受理范围、分清污染事故与纠纷的性质，确认赔偿责任认定的法律效力，以进一步完善环境污染纠纷行政处理制度。     

The importance of spatial autocorrelation,extent and resolution in predicting forest bird occurrence

Concerns about declines in forest biodiversity underscore the need for accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales and at resolutions that are fine enough to be appropriate for management. This paper addresses three major objectives: (i) to determine whether the resolution of typical air photo-derived forest inventory is sufficient for the accurate prediction of site occupancy by forest birds. We compared prediction success of habitat models using air photo variables to models with variables derived from finer resolution, ground-sampled vegetation plots. (ii) To test whether incorporating spatial autocorrelation into habitat models via autologistic regression increases prediction success. (iii) To determine whether landscape structure is an important factor in predicting bird distribution in forest-dominated landscapes. Models were tested locally (Greater Fundy Ecosystem [GFE]) using cross-validation, and regionally using an independent data set from an area located ca. 250 km to the northwest (Riley Brook [RB]). We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of at least one habitat model for 76% (16/21) of species examined. In these cases, the logistic regression assumption of spatially independent errors was violated. Logistic models that ignored spatial autocorrelation tended to overestimate habitat effects. Though overall prediction success was higher for autologistic models than logistic models in the GFE, the difference was only significantly improved for one species. Further, the inclusion of spatial covariates did little to improve model performance in the geographically discrete study area. For 62% (13/21) of species examined, landscape variables were significant predictors of forest bird occurrence even after statistically controlling for stand-level variability. However, broad spatial extents explained less variation than local factors. In the GFE, 76% (16/21) of air photo and 81% (17/21) of ground plot models were accurate enough to be of practical utility (AUC > 0.7). When applied to RB, both model types performed effectively for 55% (11/20) of the species examined. We did not detect an overall difference in prediction success between air photo and ground plot models in either study area. We conclude that air photo data are as effective as fine resolution vegetation data for predicting site occupancy for the majority of species in this study. These models will be of use to forest managers who are interested in mapping species distributions under various timber harvest scenarios, and to protected areas planners attempting to optimize reserve function.     

Building consensus on divisive issues: a case study of the Yukon wolf management team

This article presents a case study of a successful effort to reach agreement on one of the most intractable environmental issues of our time: wolf management. This case is unusual in several ways. In this case, the members of the negotiating team were ordinary citizens rather than leaders of organized groups. This team was given an unusually high level of authority to write the plan as they saw fit; the agency pledged to implement “whatever they came up with.” The agency convened the process, but agency personnel were not members of the team and attended only when they were invited. The team members were able to reach agreement on this tough issue even though polar opposites were at the table—one who felt that wolves are a “spiritual essence” and another who felt that, as he put it, “wolves, coyotes, and cockroaches have a lot in common”. They produced a detailed plan that addressed all the issues in just 5 months. Another unusual aspect of this effort is that the final agreement does not list the team members. They explained that they wanted their plan to “stand alone” and be judged based on what it said, not on who was involved.However, just after their agreement was completed, a new, pro-wolf control government was elected that refused to endorse the plan. While the government gave various reasons for not ratifying the plan, more and more diverse interest groups came out in support for both the plan and the process that created it. Eventually, overwhelming public support forced the government to sign and implement the plan as written. This demonstrates that, while it is important for a team to seek the sanction of decision-makers, it is perhaps even more important for the general public to see the effort and the final agreement as fair. Strong support from a broad spectrum of the public can help win the necessary political support.In addition to discussing the unorthodox aspects of this consensus-building effort, this article also attempts to give the reader a front row seat to this process by using the informants' own words—words rich in detail, brimming with color and spoken straight from the heart. Certainly their experience dispels any notion that such efforts are simply a matter of following a recipe. During the process, members of the negotiating team experienced the entire gamut of emotions—anger, defeat, humor and, finally, a genuine sense of pride. As team member Patty Denison put it, “We showed that a random group of people could work together and do something truly monumental.”     

Source resolution and risk apportionment to augment the Bubble Policy: Application to a steel plant “bubble”

Source resolution and risk apportionment of emission source categories for risk reduction purposes can be used to enhance the Bubble Policy of the Clean Air Act. This is performed by incorporating receptor modeling techniques of factor analysis and chemical mass balances to assess noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic inhalation risks to a target population for certain pollutants coming from major emission source categories in a steel plant air shed. Source resolution, using factor analysis, statistically interprets a “source” from ambient data. By subsequently quantifying risks from identified metal emission sources using chemical mass balances and risk apportionment, a total additive risk from main source contributors in the steel plant is estimated. From this methodology, the Bubble Policy can be enhanced by targeting only main risk sources or by “risk-trading” with minor impact sources to reduce the total risk (if deemed significant) without arbitrarily reducing risk for all sources in an industrial source complex’s “bubble.”     

发展循环经济是解决环境污染的根本途径

要解决我国的环境污染问题,必须应用循环经济原理,合理规划工业布局,优化原有工业企业分布,形成社会、企业之间、企业内部的废弃物品、余热、余能、废弃物质循环利用,从源头上控制污染物的产生,才是解决环境污染的根本途径.     

Interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming for water resources management

In this study, an interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming (ITSFP) approach has been developed through incorporating an interactive fuzzy resolution (IFR) method within an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework. ITSFP can not only tackle dual uncertainties presented as fuzzy boundary intervals that exist in the objective function and the left- and right-hand sides of constraints, but also permit in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised policy targets are violated. A management problem in terms of water resources allocation has been studied to illustrate applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that a set of solutions under different feasibility degrees has been generated for planning the water resources allocation. They can help the decision makers (DMs) to conduct in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between economic efficiency and constraint-violation risk, as well as enable them to identify, in an interactive way, a desired compromise between satisfaction degree of the goal and feasibility of the constraints (i.e., risk of constraint violation).     

利用MODIS遥感数据反演广州市气溶胶光学厚度

利用中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)数据和NASA的V5.2气溶胶业务反演算法,对广州市进行了高空间分辨率气溶胶光学厚度的反演,并应用地面太阳光度计(CE-318)观测的气溶胶光学厚度进行验证.结果表明,利用MODIS L1B数据进行高分辨率气溶胶光学厚度反演,结果精度较高.利用反演结果分析2008~2009年冬季广州市的气溶胶光学厚度时空变化特征,2008年12月的气溶胶光学厚度较低,平均大约为0.65,随后气溶胶光学厚度逐渐增大,到2009年2月,气溶胶光学厚度平均大约为1.35.广州市气溶胶光学厚度空间差异显著,在0.1~1之间变化,呈东北低西南高的空间分布特征.即森林覆盖率比较高的地区气溶胶较低.